Economic growth revised sharply higher
Wednesday November 30, 1:37 PM EST
By Andrea Hopkins
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth was much
stronger last quarter than first thought as spending rose more
than estimated, while divergent inflation signals in government
and private-sector data on Wednesday left economists puzzled
over price pressures.
Gross domestic product, a measure of all goods and services
produced within U.S. borders, grew at a revised 4.3 percent
annual rate in the July-to-September period, the fastest pace
since the first three months of 2004, the Commerce Department
said. That report also showed inflation was milder than first
thought.
The core price index for consumer spending, the Federal
Reserve's favored inflation yardstick that strips out volatile
food and energy prices, rose just 1.2 percent in the third
quarter, down from the originally reported 1.3 percent pace.
That was the lowest rate of core inflation in more than two
years. Economists had expected the index to be revised higher.
However, data from the private sector showed prices paid by
businesses in the Midwest rose in November to their highest
level in 26 years while business activity eased, suggesting it
may be too early to dismiss the threat of inflation.
The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago
said its business barometer came in at 61.7, compared with 62.9
in October and with Wall Street expectations for a reading of
60.0. The prices paid index surged to 94.1, a 26-year high,
from 79.6 in October.
The Commerce Department report also showed Gulf Coast
hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit corporate profits in the
quarter ending September 30.
Treasury bond prices, initially lifted by indications in
the GDP data that prices were tame, dipped on signs of
inflation pressures in the Chicago PMI number which were seen
as keeping the Federal Reserve on an upward path for now.
Blue-chip stocks followed suit, weighed down by similar
worries.
"It's certainly a concerning reading," said Dana Johnson,
chief economist at Comerica in Detroit. "Most of what we are
seeing there is the impact of higher natural gas and other
energy prices."
The dollar was little changed despite the upbeat news on
economic growth.
In its first snapshot a month ago, the government had
pegged third-quarter growth at 3.8 percent and Wall Street
economists had expected the rate to be revised up more
modestly, to 4.0 percent. The sharp upward bump took growth a
full point above the second-quarter's 3.3 percent rate.
"Clearly the economy had a good head of steam on it right
through the hurricane period," said Alan Ruskin, research
director at 4CAST Ltd in New York.
FEDERAL RESERVE MUST BE ON GUARD
"It's another reminder that the Fed has to remain alert to
pricing pressures," said Brian Garvey, senior currency
strategist at State Street in Boston of the Chicago PMI number.
"(Policy-makers must) remain on guard to prevent expectations
that the rate cycle is nearly over, given that they could be
blindsided by an inflation scare in the first quarter."
The Fed has raised short-term interest rates 12 times since
mid-2004 in a bid to keep price rises in check, but many
analysts suspect the rate-hike campaign is nearing an end.
While the GDP report reinforced the view the U.S. economy
is on a solid footing, economists expect growth to cool in the
fourth quarter and into 2006 as the housing market starts to
fade and consumers pull back.
"That is one factor that will probably help the Federal
Reserve eventually conclude its monetary tightening cycle,"
said Patrick Fearon, senior economist at A.G. Edwards & Sons in
St. Louis.
The Commerce Department report said after-tax corporate
profits fell 3.7 percent, the largest decline in four years,
after a 5.3 percent rise in the second quarter. Profits were
cut by $151.2 billion at an annual rate because of hurricanes
Katrina and Rita, as insurance companies made huge benefits
payments and uninsured corporate property was lost.
The strong GDP growth was attributed to higher spending by
both businesses and consumers. Consumer spending advanced at a
solid 4.2 percent pace, above the 3.9 percent rate first
reported. Spending on housing grew at an 8.4 percent pace, up
from the 4.8 percent growth first reported, after a 10.8
percent surge in the second quarter.
Business spending was also robust, climbing at an 8.8
percent pace, above the initially estimated 6.2 percent growth.
(Additional reporting by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa in New
York)
©2005 Reuters Limited.
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