Fed beige book: economic activity up
Wednesday November 30, 2:53 PM EST
By Mark Felsenthal
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. economic activity increased
across the country through mid-November but the housing market
has cooled and high energy prices have raised concern about
consumer spending and production costs, the Federal Reserve
said on Wednesday.
"Consumer prices remained stable or experienced generally
modest increases, but most districts reported increasing input
prices, particularly of energy-related products, construction
and raw materials, and transportation," the Fed said in its
"beige book" summary of economic conditions.
Some Fed districts saw mixed reports on the ability of
businesses to pass these higher input prices to consumers. If
companies succeed in raising prices, the inflation being felt
by producers will trickle down to American shoppers, who are
already feeling the pinch of gasoline and heating oil costs.
Analysts said the report confirmed the U.S. economy was on
solid footing and reinforced market expectations that the Fed
will soon end a 17-month policy of interest-rate increases.
"They do note inflationary pressures but nothing we are not
aware of, and people continue to expect them to stop (rate
hikes) at 4.50 percent," said David Powell, analyst at
IDEAglobal in New York.
The Fed has raised short-term rates to 4 percent in 12
quarter-point moves since June 2004 in a bid to head off
inflation and return policy to a more neutral level after
borrowing costs were lowered to just 1 percent in the wake of
the September 11, 2001, attacks.
Several districts noted an increase in hiring in a variety
of industries, some tightening of the labor market, and
scattered skills shortages, but said there was only modest
upward pressure on wages.
HOLIDAY SHOPPING
The Fed said several districts were "generally optimistic"
about the holiday shopping season, expecting at least a
moderate increase in sales compared to last year.
"Some contacts in Boston and Kansas City, however,
expressed concerns about the effect of high energy prices on
consumer spending in the upcoming season," the Fed said.
Declining auto sales were reported by many, with some
citing a lack of new incentive programs or the ending of price
discounts as one reason for the declines. Several regions said
the shift from larger autos and sport utility vehicles toward
more fuel-efficient cars had continued.
Many Fed districts reported moderating housing sectors,
with Philadelphia, Richmond and Cleveland experiencing slowing
home sales. Chicago and Atlanta reported flat home sales, and
the Kansas City region experienced excess inventories.
"Generally, residential real estate market activity
remained high, but many districts reported a slowing or cooling
of activity," the Fed said.
At the same time, many districts saw a pickup in commercial
real estate activity.
Fed districts said there were still disruptions to energy
production, despite recovery from hurricanes Katrina and Rita
in the late summer.
The Atlanta district reported production in the Gulf of
Mexico had improved since September. However, nearly 40 percent
of natural gas and half of oil production still remained
off-line.
"Most of the petroleum refining capacity in Louisiana and
Mississippi was back on-line, but natural gas processing
remains a concern as repair of processing facilities is taking
longer than expected," the Fed said.
The report was prepared by the St. Louis Fed with data
collected before November 21.
©2005 Reuters Limited.
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